Monday Night Football Game Preview Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5 | O/U: 39.5)
Game Preview
It’s a middling Monday night matchup as the 4-6-1 Colts host the 3-7 Steelers. Neither team has impressed this season, although both teams have found some rhythm over the past few weeks.
Pittsburgh is a week removed from their best offensive showing of the season. The Steelers tallied 351 yards of total offense versus a respectable Cincinnati defense (12th in EPA / Play, 13th in Weighted DVOA), and the team’s 30 points were the most they have scored all year. The score was closer than the gap between them and the Bengals, but the offense produced at a level previously unseen under rookie QB Kenny Pickett.
The Colts defense, however, is markedly better than the Bengals’ (8th is EPA / Play, 9th in Weighted DVOA). The unit allows a mere 19.65 points per game, and has not afforded their opponent greater than 20 points since October 16th. Given the circumstances, it is doubtful that the Steelers’ offense will once again surge-- but they might not have to.
Indianapolis’ offense has been one of the worst units in the NFL. Only the Denver Broncos have scored fewer points per game than the Colts, and while the team has been marginally better since Saturday’s arrival, they still lack the explosion necessary to win comfortably.
The low total on this game is warranted. But, there is potential that this is a sneaky competitive, and exciting game. Perhaps the Steelers can maintain their success on offense, but it is equally likely that they stumble in such an environment. How much trust should be given to rookie QB Kenny Pickett on the road, on Monday Night Football?
Active Trends
Steelers’ HC Mike Tomlin is 18-3 SU on Monday Night Football
Steelers’ HC Mike Tomlin is 50-30-4 ATS as an Underdog
The Colts are 9-2 to the Under this season
The Colts are 2-9 ATS in the First Half this season
The Colts have lost 7 consecutive games to the Steelers (2-5 ATS)
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