Thursday Night Football Free Bet: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+3.5 | O/U: 43.5)
The Bills have fallen out of favor since their Week 7 bye. Buffalo has streaked the wrong way since the break (0-4-1 ATS), and their uneven play is cause for concern. The team has dealt with a lot of off-field noise these past few weeks, and now must manage an extensive injury report in Foxborough. Such circumstances has caused this line to steam down off of Bills -5.5 at open, but now offers us an opportunity to back the team at a discounted price.
The absence of both C Mitch Morse, and OT Dion Dawkins is worrisome-- but this isn’t a bet on the Bills’ Offensive Line. This is a bet on Josh Allen, and a recognition of the disparity between these two teams’ signal-callers.
The regression of second-year QB Mac Jones is undeniable. Jones is one of six current starters with a negative EPA / Drop-Back, and cannot be counted on to elevate the Patriots offense. Additionally, the challenge of facing the Buffalo defense cannot be overstated. The Bills grade out at the 3rd best defense in the NFL per DVOA, and Mac has struggled versus units of a similar stature this season (namely, the New York Jets).
Conversely, the Patriots’ illustrious defense has a poor track record against mobile quarterbacks. The unit was gashed twice already this season by Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, and it is doubtful they suddenly find an answer versus Josh Allen. Further, Allen has an excellent history versus these Pats (5-2-1 ATS), and throttled them in their most recent matchup.
It is a hard sell to back Mac Jones and the Patriots offense tonight. Perhaps expectations should be tempered for Buffalo given their recent turmoil, but history suggests this is a good spot for Allen and co. to find their wings. Gladly back the discounted Bills on the spread tonight.
Bet: Bills -3.5 (-110)
For those who are especially risk averse, there is the option of buying half a point, and playing the Bills -3 (-135). It is extremely unlikely that Buffalo wins this game by either one or two points, and nothing hurts more than losing by the hook. Be cautious though, as if Buffalo were to lay an egg on Thursday night, this loss would hurt significantly more.
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