Monday NBA Free Bet Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks (-3.5 | O/U: 222)

It’s Monday Night in the NBA and we are treated to a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Semifinals as the Phoenix Suns visit the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas looks to even the season series after falling to Phoenix 107-105 in the two teams’ opener, but we don’t like their chances of doing so. 

The Mavericks have been a frustrating team this season. Last year’s runner-ups in the West have limped their way to an 11-11 start, and no team has fared worse ATS than Dallas (6-15-1). Further, Dallas has yet to cover following a win this season (0-10 ATS), and such streaks scream that Phoenix is the side to back tonight. 

On the court, it’s the same story. Over the past five games, Dallas ranks 11th in offensive efficiency to Phoenix’s 2nd, and 19th in defense to the Suns’ 12th. The metrics define the Suns as the better team, and our eyes agree. Phoenix should dominate inside with C Deandre Ayton, and G Devin Booker is good for (at the least) his usual 25/5/5 statline. 

In addition, we fail to see an avenue for the Mavericks to win if Luka Doncic is anything other than elite tonight. Dallas is overly reliant on Luka’s heroics to generate offense, and lack the playmaking necessary to keep pace with the Suns were he to turn in a pedestrian performance. Christian Wood has been an excellent contributor for Dallas, but he enters this game Questionable with an illness, and has recently expressed displeasure with his current role. 

The knock on Phoenix in this spot would be that they’re somewhat banged-up, and now play on the tail-end of a back-to-back. This would typically be a concern, but we don’t believe Dallas is capable of stressing the Suns’ short bench, and the back-to-back is no issue considering none of the team’s starters played extensive minutes in San Antonio last night. 

This is a bet on the better team, and a fade of the Mavericks after a win. Dallas has been overvalued all season, and they continue to be so tonight-- this line should be a pick’em. Take Phoenix, and take the free points.

Bet: Suns +3.5

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