NBA on TNT Free Bet Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets (-5 | O/U: 222.5)

The Mavericks scorned us yesterday, but we’re back and looking to fade them once again as underdogs in Denver. 

Situationally, this is as tough a spot for Dallas as they may have all season. This will be the team’s third game in four nights, and second in as many days. Further, the altitude in Denver only elevates the challenge in playing the tail-end of a back-to-back, a scenario in which the Mavs have struggled so far this season (0-3-1 ATS).

In addition, Dallas has been the worst team in the NBA following a win (1-10 ATS), and have spiraled on the road this past month (1-6 ATS). The team was able to subvert these trends in their previous two games (in New York, Home vs Phoenix), but the theme persists. 

Statistically, much of the analysis pointing us away from Dallas tonight remains from last night’s handicap. Advanced metrics identify Denver as one of the NBA’s three best offenses, and the team’s defense has ticked up of late. Conversely, Dallas has trended downward in both categories with the exception of last night’s game versus the Suns (a game in which the Mavericks could not miss). 

This is situationally a poor spot for Dallas, and their shooting performance of Monday night is a glaring outlier considering how they’ve shot it all year. We like Denver to continue their efficient play, and to knock off Dallas in front of their home crowd. 

Bet: Nuggets -5 (-110)

Note that The Premium identified this as a play when the spread was Denver -4, but we still like the number here tonight. For the rest of The Premium’s Best Bets tonight, and for the rest of the week, click the link here and use promo code JURGENS to save 25% on a VIP package.