Monday Night Football Preview New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3 | O/U: 41)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the New Orleans Saints in what is a crucial divisional matchup. The Buccaneers have been one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments this season, yet manage to sit atop the NFC South with a 5-6 record. New Orleans (4-8) has an opportunity to split the season series with Tampa Bay tonight, and in doing so would keep their playoff chances alive.
The Saints have a strong history versus Tom Brady’s Bucs. Since Brady’s pivot to Tampa in 2020, the Saints lead the regular season series 4-1, and have covered the spread in each of their four victories. With that said, New Orleans has been a tough sell on the road. The Saints boast a league worst 0-5 record ATS on the road this season, and their lone outright victory came all the way back in Week 1. Additionally, the history of QB Andy Dalton is glaring in the worst way. Dalton is 9-17 ATS in primetime for his career, and 3-11-1 ATS in his last 15 on the road.
Conversely, the Bucs are not without their own trepidations. Tampa’s 3-7-1 ATS record rivals the Rams for the worst mark in the league, and their most recent loss in Cleveland was inexplicably bad. The Bucs’ Brady led offense has greatly regressed, and the team’s futile commitment to the run game has been their chief inefficiency (30th in Rush DVOA, 32nd in EPA / Rush). Further, the team must now withstand another injury along the offensive line, as OT Tristian Wirfs will miss several weeks with a high-ankle sprain. Tampa now remains only one preseason starter along the offensive line, and a date with the Saints is not ideal for this team.
New Orleans can make the NFC South title race interesting with a victory tonight. The matchup for the Saints opposite an injury-riddled Tampa O-line is ideal, but the team has scorned those who have chosen to back them on the road this season. To find out how The Premium is betting this game, and for the rest of tonight's Best Bets, click the link here and use promo code JURGENS to save 25% on a VIP package.
