NFL Week 14 Betting Primer
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets (+10 | O/U: 43)
The Jets are undefeated following a loss this season, and have plenty of cushion to cover this number on the road. New York got the better of Josh Allen’s Bills earlier this year, but the team has a history of covering such large numbers at home-- as a Home Favorite of 7+ points, Josh Allen’s Bills are 8-3-2 ATS.
This game is crucial both for the Jets long shot chances of winning the division, and for Buffalo to hold onto the top seed in the AFC.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns (+5.5 | O/U: 46.5)
The Bengals look like a team ready to make another run at a Super Bowl, and the Browns offense sputtered with the return of QB Deshaun Watson. The Bengals are an enticing bet at this number, and are currently on a 17-3 ATS streak dating back to last season. But with that said, Cleveland has had Cincy’s number of late.
The Browns whooped the Bengals on Halloween, and are now 4-0 SU versus the team with Joe Burrow under center. Cincinnati is a legit Super Bowl contender, but their history against Cleveland cannot be ignored.
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans (+17 | O/U: 44)
The Texans will be without their top two wide receivers, rookie CB Derek Stingley Jr., and the overall talent necessary to compete with Dallas. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott is excellent as a favorite of 7+ points (14-6-1 ATS), although teams have struggled this season when favored by double-digits (7-13 ATS).
Houston will be the biggest underdog of the season, and the spread is warranted-- but it is hard to find an edge with such a large number.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings (+2 | O/U: 51.5)
It’s not a typo, the 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings. Minnesota has been fortunate in one score games this season, and the team’s underlying metrics suggest their record is not an accurate reflection of their rank in the league. Further, the Lions are a much better team since these two opponents first met in Week 3-- a game in which Detroit blew a 24-14 lead in the 4th.
Minnesota isn’t going to roll over in this spot, and likely do deserve more credit for their record than oddsmakers are giving them. Still, the Lions need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, and have covered in five consecutive games.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5 | O/U: 41)
The Titans have dropped consecutive games to the Bengals and Eagles, and look to get back on track versus Jacksonville. Some one-sided active trends for this game:
The Jaguars are 1-13 SU, and 3-11 ATS on the road with QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is 9-20 ATS in his career
The Jaguars haven’t won in Tennessee since 2013
Still, it is no layup to bet on the Titans. Quarterback Ryan Tennehill continues to nurse an ankle injury, and the Titans record is a product of favorable competition. Between these two teams, the most impressive victory is Jacksonville’s over Baltimore in Week 12.
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5 | O/U: 45)
This will be these two teams’ first meeting of the season, and it is a crucial game for the Giants and their playoff chances. The Eagles are the better team in every facet, but they have not been so dominant away from Philly-- Since Jalen Hurts took over as the starting QB in 2021, the Eagles are 5-10 ATS on the road (1-4 ATS this season).
This will be New York’s biggest home game since 2016, but will such importance make up for the gap between these two teams?
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens (+2 | O/U: 36.5)
The Ravens and Steelers have a history of playing each other tight-- Since 2005, underdogs of 3+ in this rivalry have gone 18-2 ATS. This trend may not be active today, but it speaks to the nature of how competitive these matchups can be.
Pittsburgh has the edge in this one due to the absence of Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, but expect this game to come down to the wire, and to be dominated by the defenses.
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs (-9 | O/U: 44)
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and perhaps the worst offense. Such construction has led them to be the most profitable Under bet in the league (11-1 to the Under), but it is not so easy to back that trend today. Denver now plays host to Chiefs’ top rated offense-- a unit capable of scoring 44 points themselves.
As to the spread, recent history likes Denver’s chances. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs have a 1-6 record ATS as a 7+ point road favorite, and divisional underdogs have covered at a near 60% rate this season.
San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5 | O/U: 37)
The 49ers have been quite profitable as a home favorite recently (7-1 ATS in their last eight), but it will take conviction to back them here. It is alarming that third-string QB Brock Purdy is favored in his first career start, and San Francisco HC Kyle Shanahan has a 16-22 ATS record without Jimmy G under center.
Conversely, Tom Brady has a career record of 27-13-1 ATS as a road underdog, but this trend is no good reason to bet Tampa today. The Bucs’ offense has been stagnant all season (11-1 to the Under on their Team Total), and now face the league’s best defense on short rest. There is no fault in betting on ‘The GOAT’ here, but Tampa’s only advantage today will be under center.
Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers (+3.5 | O/U: 44.5)
The Panthers are still alive in an uninspiring NFC South, and have an opportunity to keep the pressure on Brady’s Bucs with a win today. But with that said, this is hardly a fertile environment for QB Sam Darnold. The former Jet is 19-30-1 ATS for his career, and 7-18-1 ATS on the road. Further, Carolina as an organization has thoroughly struggled in this spot, having gone 6-21 SU on the road since October 2019.
This is a similarly important game for the Seahawks. The team has fallen back to Earth since their hot start, and nearly dropped a game to the Rams in Week 13. Seattle currently sits as the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs, and a win versus Carolina is crucial given their upcoming schedule.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins (-3| O/U: 53.5)
The Chargers have thoroughly disappointed this season, and need this game to keep pace in the AFC. It is a tall-task, however, as the Dolphins bring with them perhaps the best receiving duo in football, and are looking to rebound following an embarrassing loss in San Fran.
The question of this game is whether or not the Chargers offense can keep pace with Miami’s. Los Angeles’ unit has been middling thus far, but anticipates the return of WR Mike Williams for Sunday Night. His presence opposite Keenan Allen should give the Chargers as much juice on offense as they’ve had all season, but will it be enough?
To find out how The Premium is betting these games, click the link here and use promo code JURGENS to save 25% on a VIP package!
