NBA Sunday Free Bet Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans (+2 | O/U: 226.5)
It’s the first Sunday of the season without NFL football-- but don’t fret. We have a decent NBA slate, and feel to have found an edge as the Sacramento Kings travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Kings’ offense is elite; ranking second in Offensive Rating over their past fifteen games, and third in Adjusted Offensive Rating on the season. But, their offensive efficiency doesn’t travel well. Sacramento’s Offensive Rating drops 9.2 points, and from the top-rated unit in the NBA to the seventeenth, when playing on the road. Similarly (and surprisingly), the Kings’ defense has benefitted with a change in venue, improving their Defensive Rating to fifth in the NBA when away from home. Such a contrasting relationship has predictably skewed the O/U Results in Sacramento games:
The Kings are 16-10-1 to the Over at Home
The Kings are (a league best) 18-6 to the Under on the Road
Those who have consistently bet on the Under when Sacramento is on the road have surely turned a profit, and though betting on trends isn’t generally wise, there is no reason suggesting otherwise tonight. Over their past six games, the Kings are a perfect 6-0 to the Under, covering by double digits in all but one game. The exception: last Monday in Minnesota, an overtime victory which still managed to finish eight points under the total.
As to the Pelicans: they’ll be without their chief offensive catalyst in Brandon Ingram, and will be playing with tired legs on the tail-end of a bacc to back. Too, New Orleans tends to the Under at home (15-12 to the Under), and have gone Over just twice in seven home games since the start of January.
Bet: Under 226.5 (-110)
There is no justification to bet against the Kings to maintain their streak to the Under. And although the line has ticked down considerably (opening Total of 235.5), it’s likely still inflated via Sacramento’s reputation on the offensive end.
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