Free NFL Sports Betting Free Pick: Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers December 12th
For tonight's matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers on December 12, 2024, we are taking the OVER 48 points at -120. Here's why:
1. Offensive and Defensive Trends
San Francisco 49ers (Offense):
The 49ers' offense has been efficient this season. They rank 11th in points per game (23.7 PPG) and are 7th in total yards per game (387.5 YPG). Led by QB Brock Purdy, who has continued to perform well under pressure, the 49ers have scored 30+ points in 6 of their last 9 games.
The combination of Purdy, TE George Kittle and a WR receiving corps who are currently not living up to current expectations (Deebo Samuel has made them one of the most explosive offenses in the league when operating as a unit.
Los Angeles Rams (Offense):
The Rams are also averaging 22.9 PPG (16th in the league). QB Matthew Stafford has been effective, throwing for 225.1 yards per game with 19 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. WR Puka Nacua has continued to be a reliable target, and RB Kyren Williams has found success on the ground (4.04 yards per carry).
The Rams' offense has been able to move the ball through both the air and the ground, ranking 7th in total yards per game (380.5 YPG). Over their past 4 games, they've scored 44, 21, 20, and 28 points, showing an ability to generate big plays.
2. Defensive Struggles
San Francisco 49ers (Defense):
While the 49ers' defense ranks in the top 5 in several key categories (3nd in total yards allowed and 22nd in points allowed), they have shown some vulnerability in recent weeks. In particular, they have allowed more than 20 points in each of their last 5 games.
Their pass defense, while solid on paper, has given up more yards than usual recently (182.6passing yards allowed per game). The Rams have the tools to exploit this with Stafford's arm and Kupp's ability to stretch the field.
Los Angeles Rams (Defense):
The Rams have been struggling defensively this season, ranking 27th in total yards allowed per game (384 YPG) and 24th in points allowed per game (25.5 PPG).
3. Recent Matchups and Scoring Trends
In their last meeting (Week 10, 2024), the 49ers and Rams combined for 51 points. The game was marked by explosive plays from both teams, and with both offenses clicking, it became clear that both teams have the ability to put up big numbers.
The Rams have gone OVER the total in 7 of their last 10 games.
4. Weather and Venue
The game is being played at Levi's Stadium, a stadium that typically doesn’t feature harsh weather conditions in December. Mild weather conditions should allow both teams to execute their offensive game plans without much interference. Wind KM/H = 3-3 SSW at 18* degrees.
5. Key Matchup Factors
Explosive Plays: The 49ers' offense is capable of hitting explosive plays, particularly with the speed of Deebo Samuel and Ricky Samuek down the field.
Rams' Big Play Ability: Stafford’s deep ball accuracy, combined with Puca’s ability to stretch the field, should set up several scoring opportunities. The 49ers' secondary, while good overall, has given up some big passing plays this season.
6. The Pick: OVER 48 Points -120
With both offenses clicking and the defenses showing some vulnerability, we expect this game to be high-scoring. Both teams are averaging over 26 PPG this season, and with the trend of high-scoring games between these two teams, the OVER 48 seems like the smart bet.
