Thursday Night Football Free Bet: Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans (+14 | O/U: 40.5)
This would ordinarily be a bet on the Titans without a second thought. But, given the game’s circumstances, we lack the conviction to do so. Tennessee quite literally has nothing to play for, as their Week 18 matchup with the Jaguars is the only determining factor as to whether or not they advance to the postseason. Conversely, Dallas has every incentive to win this game, as they remain alive in the NFC East only if they win out.
History suggests betting on the Titans as a double-digit home underdog, but these trends do not understand the context of this game. Tennessee’s decision to start third-string QB Josh Dobbs, and their extensive injury report, don’t inspire confidence-- and for these reasons, among others outlined below, we believe the Under is the best bet for tonight.
Since Week 12, Tennessee is winless both SU and ATS. Too, it is not just that the Titans have been losing, it is that they have been one of the NFL’s worst teams over this span. Their offense ranks 28th in EPA / Play over the past five weeks, and projects to be much worse with Dobbs under center, and with the likely absence of RB Derrick Henry.
Regarding the Titans’ defense: the unit has been respectable for the year, but Coach Vrabel will be fielding mostly backups tonight. It goes without saying, but this is frightening considering the stature of the Cowboys’ offense-- a unit capable of dropping 40 points themselves. Even still, we choose to trust Vrabel’s defense to limit the Cowboys’ success in this situation.
Finally, we’ve got history on our side. Trends are fickle and often just noise, but sometimes such trends are too loud to be ignored. E.g., since the start of the 2021 season:
Thursday night games are 21-11 to the Under
Thursday night games are 14-2 to the Under when the road team is favored
Tennessee Home games are 13-3-1 to the Under
Additionally, Thursday night games are 19-4 to the Under when the Total is set at 40 points or lower dating back to 2009-- these same games are 7-1 to the Under when the road team is favored.
We expect an anemic performance from the Tennessee offense tonight, and believe in Coach Vrabel and his staff to limit Dallas’ offensive output. The game’s unique circumstances make it difficult to play a side with confidence, but we do still believe there is an edge in taking the Under. Most books have the Total set at 40, but shop around for a 40.5-- the hook sometimes matters.
Bet: Under 40.5 (-110)
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